|
ARCHIVE
QUOTES
& CHARTS
Blue
Crown Commodities
Blue
Crown Trading
Foreclosure
Jam
Bloomberg
Commodities
|
|
|
A message from the sponsor:
Futures
Magazine
I-Trade Show, is now on-demand thru March
10th featuring real lessons from real traders
like Al Brooks and Jeff Greenblatt. -
Register
Now!
|
|
|
|
Weekly
e-newsletter: January 20, 2009
|
For more information: CALL GARY
KAMEN 1-800-621-5271
|
|
|
Chart damage in soybeans and corn
Last
week March soybeans opened at 1035 ¾ and closed
the week at 1020. Soybeans had a weekly high at
1060 ¼ and weekly low at 957 ¾. March corn
last week opened at 411 and closed the week at
391. March corn’s weekly high was 415 and the
low was 358 ¾. On Monday, Jan. 12, the World Ag
Supply & Demand Report came in bearish on
both of these markets. On Monday we had some
chart damage, but by the end of last week
soybeans and corn continued their uptrend move
which started around Dec. 12-15. By Friday of
last week soybeans opened at 997 ½ and closed
at 1020. Corn last Friday opened at 365 ¼ and
closed at 391. Looking at the charts below you
will see that this momentum should continue into
early next week. You will also want to keep an
eye on the strengthening uptrend in the U.S.
dollar.
The numbers below
represent the Commercial Net Traders positions
taken from the weekly Commitment of Traders
(COT) report released by the Commodity Futures
Trading Commission each Friday. You will find a
12-month high and low with the past 2 weeks of
data. To see the past 52 weeks of commercial
data please visit www.pricecharts.com.
Simply open Analysis under the Resource category
at the top of the screen and click on the
Commercial Tracker on the left side selection
menu. You will find this to be a very
interesting presentation of the commercial COT
information.
Commercial Net
Tracker instructions
This form tracks the
Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the
commodity futures market. This form
"looks" at the most recent five weeks
of COT data and provides visual indications of
the data. A.
If the current value is at a 12-month low, the
cell will display a red/burgundy background. B.
If the current value is at a 12-month high, the
cell will display a green background. C.
If the current value went from net negative to
net positive, the cell will display a blue
background (indicating a bullish condition). D.
If the current value is both a 12-month high and
also went from a net negative to a net positive,
the background will be green. You should view
the data with green backgrounds to determine if
they also went from net negative to net
positive.
|
|
Commodity
|
12-mo low
|
12-mo hi
|
19-Jan
|
12-Jan
|
|
Cattle (feed)
|
-434
|
6,452
|
4,521
|
3,433
|
|
Cattle (live)
|
-21,243
|
31,210
|
17,233
|
23,553
|
|
Hogs
|
-8,804
|
26,880
|
-7,399
|
1,576
|
|
Pork bellies
|
-644
|
379
|
|
|
|
Corn
|
-302,026
|
36,250
|
26,542
|
11,192
|
|
Oats
|
-6,401
|
1,587
|
1,120
|
942
|
|
Soybeans
|
-118,511
|
2,275
|
-15,902
|
-13,137
|
|
Soybean meal
|
-85,681
|
-1,533
|
-15,504
|
-11,712
|
|
Soybean oil
|
-64,684
|
20,737
|
7
|
6,714
|
|
Wheat
|
-13,403
|
40,438
|
29,338
|
23,458
|
|
Orange juice
|
-9,883
|
3,538
|
-4,719
|
-3,440
|
|
Coffee
|
-63,521
|
12,520
|
-1,354
|
7,166
|
|
Cocoa
|
-68,333
|
623
|
-24,293
|
-24,832
|
|
Sugar
|
-266,216
|
-72,825
|
-109,004
|
-102,635
|
|
Cotton
|
-91,444
|
7,063
|
-5,237
|
-7,828
|
|
British pound
|
-27,948
|
63,155
|
25,388
|
26,746
|
|
Canada dollar
|
-65,777
|
31,326
|
7,921
|
4,261
|
|
Euro FX
|
-46,345
|
44,526
|
27
|
-11,494
|
|
Japanese yen
|
-81,454
|
29,994
|
-44,987
|
-47,485
|
|
Swiss franc
|
-32,812
|
22,561
|
-244
|
-2,543
|
|
US dollar index
|
-35,509
|
11,304
|
-5,231
|
-4,948
|
|
Mexican Peso
|
-131,246
|
5,974
|
5,882
|
2,572
|
|
Australian dollar
|
-84,096
|
18,869
|
1,448
|
-6,729
|
|
S&P 500
|
-100,460
|
31,776
|
-62,995
|
-68,880
|
|
T-note -10 yr
|
-169,435
|
218,307
|
59,522
|
46,435
|
|
T-bond -30 yr
|
8,362
|
163,627
|
113,901
|
118,824
|
|
Eurodollar
|
-1,952,546
|
-552,788
|
-779,999
|
-672,017
|
|
Crude oil
|
-102,835
|
47,478
|
-52,505
|
-66,536
|
|
Heating oil
|
-37,951
|
-7,162
|
-20,435
|
-15,654
|
|
Unleaded gas
|
-79,526
|
-24,194
|
-55,955
|
-58,398
|
|
Natural gas
|
13,831
|
141,945
|
105,192
|
108,860
|
|
Copper
|
-9,289
|
26,017
|
26,017
|
20,363
|
|
Gold
|
-252,740
|
-69,496
|
-141,563
|
-149,482
|
|
Platinum
|
-12,189
|
-2,758
|
-9,835
|
-9,439
|
|
Silver
|
-75,790
|
27,908
|
-27,680
|
-30,920
|
To view the entire year
of commercial data please visit www.pricecharts.com.
|
|
|
|
Fundamental:
SOYBEANS—March
soybean prices retreated from their recent
three-1/4 month high where they recovered from
last month’s one and a half year low (which
was 53% below July’s record high). Bearish
factors include (1) the USDA’s hike on Jan. 12
of its 2008-09 U.S. crop production and
carry-over estimates, (2) the 14% drop in
December U.S. soybean processing due to slack
demand for soy meal for livestock and (3) weak
crude oil prices, undercutting biofuel and
soybean prices. Bullish factors include (1)
drought concerns in South America, and (2)
strong Chinese demand with its recent 454,000 MT
import of U.S. soybeans. As of Jan. 6, large
specs held a small long position of 29,017. Soybean
summary: 2008-09 crop 2.959 bln
bu (+10.6% y/y), 2008-09 U.S. carry-over stocks
of 225 mln bu (+9.8% y/y), 2008-09 global
carry-over of 53.94 MMT (+1.6% y/y).
CORN—March
corn prices tumbled to a one-month low and are
just above last month’s two-year low (which
was 62% below June’s record high). Bearish
factors include (1) the USDA’s Jan. 12 hike in
its U.S. and global carry-over estimates, (2)
slack demand for ethanol as U.S. ethanol
producers have idled 583 million gallons of
annual capacity in the past week through
shutdowns or delays, (3) the fall in crude oil
prices to a four-3/4 year low, further hurting
ethanol and corn prices, and (4) the 50% y/y
decline in U.S. corn exports from Sept. 1 to
Jan. 8. A bullish factor is the drought in
Brazil and Argentina, which is stressing the
corn crop and lowering yields. Large specs as of
Jan. 6 held a small long position of 50,363. Summary:
2008-09 crop 12.101 bln bu (-7.4% y/y), U.S.
2008-09 carryover 1.790 mln bu (+10.2% y/y),
global 2008-09 carryover 136.03 MMT (+6.1% y/y).
Legend:
CC - consecutive closes
UTL - uptrend line
DTL - downtrend line
A message from the sponsor:
Futures
Magazine
I-Trade Show, is now on-demand thru March
10th featuring real lessons from real traders
like Al Brooks and Jeff Greenblatt. -
Register
Now!
Charts
provided by www.bluefutures.com
SPECIAL FREE BONUS:
One
of the biggest questions I have heard over the
last 10 years is about risk management and
"how to place stops?" If you call me
at 800-621-5271 or click on the link below I
will send you a free copy of the book "The
Art of Stop Placement". For any level
trader this book will help you with risk
management, a key ingredient to successful
trading.
http://www.barchart.com/forms/stoporder.asp?id=MARKETMOVERS
|
|
|
