Barchart.com
U.S. Morning Call for Monday, April 20, 2009
Overnight Developments
- The
European DJ Stoxx 50 this morning is down -1.25%
and June S&Ps are down -10.40 points (-1.20%).
The Asia-Pacific stock markets today closed mostly
higher with Japan (+0.19%), Hong Kong (+0.96%),
China (+2.15%), Taiwan (+0.46%), Australia
(-0.20%), Singapore (-1.14%), South Korea
(+0.57%), India (-0.40%). European and US stock
prices are lower today on concern that earnings
reports this week will show that the global
recession hasn't eased. Germany's central bank,
the Bundesbank, said the recession in Europe's
largest economy deepened in the first quarter
saying "the sharp contraction continued in
the manufacturing sector" as the "steep
slump" in orders, which begn in Sep,
"didn't slow down yet and the recessive
underlying trend in the German economy deepened
after gross donestic product fell by 2.1%" in
the previous quarter. GlaxoSmithKline Plc agreed
to buy Stiefel Laboratories for $2.9 billion in
cash and may pay another $300 million, depending
on Steifel's pe rformance, and will assume $400
million in debt. China's Shanghai Composite Index
rose to an 8-month high today and boosted other
Asian stock markets after Chinese Premier Wen
Jiabao said a stimulus plan has shown
"better-than-expected" results
The
"U.S. Economic Preview" report, which is
sent each evening and provides analysis for the next
day's key events and economic reports is now
exclusively available through CRB Trader.
The U.S. Economic Preview provides a trader with
perspective on events before they occur the next day,
thus helping a trader to know better how to react when
a report is released.
Overnight U.S. Stock News
- June
S&Ps this morning are trading down -10.40
points. The US stock market last Friday closed
higher with the S&P 500 posting a new 3-month
high (Dow +0.07%, S&P 500 +0.50%, Nasdaq
Composite +0.16%).
- Bullish
factors for stock prices last Friday included (1)
the stronger-than-expected US consumer confidence
report (+4.6 to 61.9 versus expectations of +1.2
to 58.5), (2) continued strength in banking stocks
with Wells Fargo, Bank of America and Morgan
Stanley all showing gains of more than 4%, (3) a
14% rally in BB&T, which reported much
stronger than expected Q1 EPS ex-items of 52
cents, and (4) a 2.8% rally in Procter &
Gamble, which raised its dividend last week.
- Bearish
factors for stock prices last Friday included (1)
a 2.2% decline in Intel and a 3% decline in
Microsoft after orders for semiconductor equipment
plunged by 76% in March, indicating soft IT
demand, and (2) the sharp 30-tick sell-off in
T-note prices.
- Citigroup
(C) is trading 3% lower in European trading after
Goldman Sachs stated that Citigroup's credit
losses are growing at a "rapid rate,"
and repeated their "sell" rating on the
stock.
- Bank
of America (BAC) fell 7% in pre-market trading
despite reporting Q1 earnings of 44 cents a share,
much better than the 4 cents expected by analysts.
However, Bank of America said their Q1 unrealized
losses on mortgage-backed securities widened to
$10.9 billion from $9.3 billion in Q4 and they
also recorded a $13.4 billion loan-loss provision.
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Today's U.S. Market Focus
- June
10-year T-notes this morning are trading up +8
ticks on the lower equity markets. June T-note
prices last Friday sold off sharply and closed -30
ticks lower. Bearish factors for T-note prices
last Friday included (1) the
stronger-than-expected US consumer confidence
report (+4.6 to 61.9 versus expectations of +1.2
to 58.5), (2) the continued rally in the US stock
market and in bank stocks, which reduced
safe-haven demand for T-notes, and (3) supply
overhang ahead of a heavy Treasury auction
schedule for this week and next week.
- The
dollar index is trading at a 1-month high with the
dollar/yen -0.44 and the euro/dollar -0.83 cents.
The dollar index is trading at a 1-month high
today on concerns a rift among ECB policy makers
is deepening after ECB Executive Board member Bini
Smaghi said the central bank's 1.25% rate is
"very close" to its floor, contradicting
two other ECB members who last week said they
supported interest rates below 1.00%. The dollar
index rallied last Friday and closed just below
the recent 1-month high. Bullish factors included
(1) the stronger than expected US consumer
confidence report, and (2) the resistance on the
ECB council for cutting the refinancing rate below
1.00%, which is good for European interest rate
differentials but suggests that the ECB may not be
taking aggressive enough action to revive the
European economy. The continued rally in US stocks
is bullish for the dollar, since the rally is
attracting some foreign capital back into US
stocks. However, th e rally in US stocks also
means the banking crisis is easing, which reduces
emergency liquidity demand for dollars.
- May
crude oil prices this morning are trading sharply
lower by -$2.28 a barrel and May gasoline is down
-3.42 cents as the rally in the dollar index to a
1-month high along with lower equity markets is
undercutting prices in the energy complex. May
crude oil prices last Friday closed slightly
higher by 35 cents and May gasoline closed +1.84
cents. Bullish factors for crude oil prices last
Friday included (1) the stronger than expected US
consumer confidence report, which raised some
hopes that US consumers might start using more
gasoline, and (2) news that Chinese refineries
raised production levels, suggesting that the
Chinese fiscal stimulus program may be boosting
Chinese fuel demand. Bearish factors continue to
include (1) weak US and global fuel demand, and
(2) the 18-1/2 year high in US crude oil
inventories.
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Today's U.S. Earnings Reports
Earnings
reports (confirmed releases for companies with market
caps above $5.0 bln listed by mkt cap) IBM (BEST
earnings consensus $1.66 per share), BAC-Bank of
America ($0.04), LLY-Eli Lilly ($0.99), TXN-Texas
Instruments (-0.01), HAL-Halliburton (0.42),
SYK-Stryker Corp (0.71), BSX-Boston Scientific (0.12),
WFT-Weatherford Intl (0.29)
Global Financial Calendar
|
Monday 4/20/2009
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United States
|
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0900 ET
|
Chicago Fed President
Charles Evans delivers welcoming remarks at a
Chicago Fed event.
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1000 ET
|
Mar leading indicators
expected –0.2%, Feb –0.4%.
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1100 ET
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Treasury announces amount
of 5-year TIPS to be auctioned Apr 23 (previous
$6 billion).
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1300 ET
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Weekly 3-mo and 6-mo
T-bill auctions.
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Japan
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0100 ET
|
Revised Feb Japan leading
index CI, previous 75.2. Revised Feb coincident
index CI, previous 86.8.
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Morning Quote Board
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Morning Quotes (ET)
|
Last
|
Chg
|
%chg
|
Updated
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US Stock Futures
|
|
S&P (Globex) (M9)
|
856.40
|
-10.40
|
-1.20%
|
07:08:27
|
|
DJIA (CBOT) (M9)
|
7996
|
-88
|
-1.09%
|
07:08:41
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|
|
|
|
|
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European Stocks
|
|
Europe DJ Stoxx 50
|
1971.10
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-24.94
|
-1.25%
|
07:04:00
|
|
London UK FTSE Index
|
4054.49
|
-38.31
|
-0.94%
|
07:03:45
|
|
German Dax Index
|
4571.13
|
-105.71
|
-2.26%
|
07:04:00
|
|
French CAC 40 Index
|
3034.33
|
-57.63
|
-1.86%
|
07:03:45
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|
|
|
|
|
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Asian-Pacific Stocks
|
|
Japan Nikkei Index
|
8925
|
17
|
0.19%
|
03:00:14
|
|
Hong Kong Hang Seng
|
15751
|
150
|
0.96%
|
04:01:30
|
|
China CSI 300 Index
|
2708
|
57
|
2.15%
|
03:00:59
|
|
Taiwan TAIEX Index
|
5782
|
26
|
0.46%
|
01:46:01
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|
Australian S&P 200
|
3769
|
-7.7
|
-0.20%
|
02:47:03
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|
Singapore Str. Times
|
1874.85
|
-21.71
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-1.14%
|
05:10:00
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South Korea KOSPI 200
|
172.3
|
0.97
|
0.57%
|
05:04:03
|
|
Bombay Sensex 30
|
10980
|
-43.59
|
-0.40%
|
06:28:10
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Karachi KSE-100
|
7902
|
108
|
1.38%
|
05:44:20
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|
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|
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US Interest Rates
|
|
10yr T-notes (CBT)(M9)
|
122.170
|
0.080
|
0.20%
|
07:08:52
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|
Cash 10yr T-note Price
|
98.255
|
0.145
|
0.46%
|
07:19:00
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|
Cash 10yr T-note Yield
|
2.893
|
-0.052
|
-1.76%
|
07:18
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5yr T-note (CBT)(M9)
|
117.175
|
0.030
|
0.08%
|
07:08:54
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Cash 5yr T-note Price
|
99.165
|
0.060
|
0.19%
|
07:19:00
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Cash 5yr T-note Yield
|
1.856
|
-0.037
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-1.93%
|
07:18
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30-yr T-bond (CBT)(M9)
|
125.26
|
0.15
|
0.36%
|
07:08:52
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Cash 30yr T-bond Price
|
95.205
|
0.300
|
0.99%
|
07:08:30
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Cash 30yr T-bond Yield
|
3.744
|
-0.054
|
-1.43%
|
07:08
|
|
Eurodollars (CME)(M9)
|
98.930
|
0.000
|
0.00%
|
07:07:17
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|
Eurodollars (CME)(U9)
|
98.865
|
0.010
|
0.01%
|
07:08:47
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|
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Asian & European
Rates
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10-yr JGBs (TSE) (M9)
|
136.63
|
-0.18
|
-0.13%
|
02:00:00
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EuroyenTibor(SGX)(U9)
|
99.480
|
0.005
|
0.01%
|
03:53:53
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Bunds (Eurex) (M9)
|
121.97
|
0.17
|
0.14%
|
07:03:59
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Euribor (Eurex) (U9)
|
98.61
|
-0.05
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-0.05%
|
06:20:38
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UK Gilts (Liffe) (M9)
|
121.99
|
0.11
|
0.09%
|
07:03:49
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Short Stlg (Liffe) (U9)
|
98.52
|
-0.02
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-0.02%
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07:03:14
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Forex
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US Dollar-Japanese Yen
|
98.72
|
-0.44
|
-0.45%
|
07:19:01
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EuroFX-US Dollar
|
1.2962
|
-0.0083
|
-0.83%
|
07:19:01
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|
US Dollar-Swiss Franc
|
1.1711
|
0.0059
|
0.59%
|
07:19:01
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|
British Pound-US$
|
1.4569
|
-0.0229
|
-2.29%
|
07:19:01
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US$-Canadian Dlr
|
1.2288
|
0.0157
|
1.57%
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07:19:00
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Yen (Globex) (M9)
|
1.014
|
0.0052
|
0.52%
|
07:09:01
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Euro FX (Globex) (M9)
|
1.2966
|
-0.0054
|
-0.41%
|
07:08:57
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|
SwissFranc (Globex)(M9)
|
0.8552
|
-0.0022
|
-0.26%
|
07:08:48
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British Pound(Glbx)(M9)
|
1.4574
|
-0.0217
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-1.47%
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07:08:59
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Canadian$ (Globex)(M9)
|
0.815
|
-0.0086
|
-1.04%
|
07:08:54
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Commodities
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Gold (Comex) (M9)
|
871.3
|
3.4
|
0.39%
|
06:48:59
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Silver (Comex) (K9)
|
12.000
|
0.210
|
1.78%
|
06:48:47
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Copper (Comex) (K9)
|
213.6
|
-5.9
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-2.67%
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06:48:54
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Crude Oil (Nymex) (K9)
|
48.05
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-2.28
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-4.53%
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06:48:44
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Gasoline (Nymex) (K9)
|
145.85
|
-3.42
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-2.29%
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06:48:44
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Heating Oil(Nymex)(K9)
|
137.89
|
-4.36
|
-3.07%
|
06:45:03
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NaturalGas(Nymex)(K9)
|
3.67
|
-0.059
|
-1.58%
|
06:48:42
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Corn (CBOT) (K9)
|
368.00
|
-8.25
|
-2.19%
|
07:03:36
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Soybeans (CBOT) (K9)
|
1043.00
|
-8.00
|
-0.76%
|
07:00:34
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Wheat (CBOT) (K9)
|
514.50
|
-8.50
|
-1.63%
|
07:08:06
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