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Treasurys
retreat after rally
Prices for
U.S. government bonds ease after surging in the
previous session on the Fed's decision to buy debt.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) --
Treasury prices eased Thursday as investors responded
to the Federal Reserve's plan to buy $300 billion in
long-term government debt and braced for next week's
auctions.
In a policy statement Wednesday,
the Fed said it would buy a total of $1.2
trillion in assets to help increase activity in
the credit markets.
By purchasing Treasurys, which the
Fed will do over the next six months, the central bank
hopes to drive down interest rates on several types of
loans. In addition to the $300 billion in Treasurys,
the Fed also announced plans to buy $750 billion in
mortgage-backed securities.
Treasurys prices soared Wednesday
after the announcement. The yield on the 10-year note
marked its largest single-day drop in over three
decades. Bond prices and yields move in opposite
directions.
But prices churned Thursday as
investors awaited more details on the plan, including
which maturities the Fed will focus its purchasing
operations on.
While the Fed's policy statement
indicated it would buy longer-term bonds, the Federal
Reserve Bank of New York said Wednesday that the
purchases - to be made across the yield curve - would
focus on notes in the range of 2 to 5 years in
duration.
"The market is continuing to
adjust to the belief that the Fed will focus its
buying on the middle of the yield curve," said
Steve Van Order, chief fixed-income analyst at Calvert
Funds. "Anytime there's a surprise announcement
of this magnitude you always get this kind of
volatility."
The Fed said it would provide
further details early next week. It plans to begin
buying Treasurys late next week, and will hold
purchase operations an average of 2 to 3 times a week
going forward.
Supply:
The Treasury Department said it will offer a total of
$98 billion in government debt next week after
auctioning $63 billion last week.
The Treasury will auction $40
billion in 2-year notes on Tuesday; $34 billion in
5-year notes on Wednesday and $24 billion in 7-year
notes on Thursday.
The auctions come as the
government is set to pay for $787 billion in economic
stimulus and $700 billion to stabilize the financial
system.
"Treasurys will be coming out
of our ears - they already are," said Kim Rupert,
fixed income analyst at Action Economics. With so much
supply coming to the market, the Fed may have to
increase its purchases of Treasurys, she added.
"I think $300 million is just
a drop in the bucket," Rupert said. "The Fed
might have to up the ante if they want to keep yields
low."
Inflation:
The Fed's aggressive new spending campaign, which will
effectively increase the money supply, raised some
concerns about inflation in the future.
While most economists say the
threat of inflation remains distant, bondholders are
concerned that it could become a problem once the
economy recovers.
Rising prices severely erode the
value of fixed income assets such as Treasury bonds.
"The bond market is going to
be concerned about inflation," Van Order said.
"Right now it's hard to imagine, but the Fed's
program could have big inflation implications."
Treasury
prices: The benchmark 10-year note was down 17/32
to 101 10/32 and its yield rose to 2.6% from 2.53%
late Wednesday.
The 30-year bond was down 1 24/32
to 97 23/32 with a yield of 3.63%.
The 2-year note slipped 3/32 to
100 1/32 and yielded 0.87%.
Lending rates:
The 3-month Libor rate fell to 1.23% from 1.29%
Wednesday, according to data on Bloomberg.com. The
overnight Libor rate eased to 0.3% from 0.31%.
Libor, the London Interbank
Offered Rate, is a daily average of rates that 16
different banks charge each other to lend money in
London.
Two credit market gauges reflected
increased liquidity. The "TED" spread shrank
to 1.04 percentage points from 1.08 percentage points.
The narrower the TED spread, the more willing
investors are to take risks.
The Libor-OIS spread narrowed to 1
percentage point from 1.07 percentage points. A
narrower spread indicates that more cash is available
for lending.
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